Nikiski, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

483
FXAK68 PAFC 071210
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
410 AM AKDT Sun Jun 7 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Tuesday)...

A weak low continues to shift slowly eastwards across portions of
the Gulf of Alaska this morning. To the north, Southcentral
remains under the influence of weak ridging stretching in from
the Yukon and British Columbia, though various cloud layers
associated with remnant showers over the mountains persist over
inland areas in spite of the weak high pressure in place. Mid to
upper cloud cover is also on the increase closer to the coast
along a subtle shortwave progressing northwest towards the Kenai
Peninsula to the north of the Gulf low. Near this shortwave axis, A
few bands of rain are beginning to move ashore across Prince
William Sound and the eastern Kenai Peninsula. Some of this light
rain could spill over to the lee side of the mountains later this
morning, perhaps reaching as far north and west as Sterling,
Kenai and Anchorage. However, given relatively dry air in place,
expect any rain that reaches the ground to remain very light.

Looking towards Monday, the Gulf low will continue east towards
the Panhandle as the already weak ridge in place over Southcentral
degrades, becoming more of a col in between synoptic areas of
high/low pressure. Gap winds will finally subside tonight into
Monday as the coastal surface ridging also erodes. Temperatures
may be marginally warmer on Monday compared to today, but don`t
expect a return to more summery 70s thanks to pervasive cloud
cover hanging on for much of the region.

By Tuesday, a potent upper level trough and surface cold front
will slam into the Alaska Range. Most of the cooler temperatures
associated with the cold front will hang up on the higher terrain
to our north and west, but the shortwave trough will continue
southeast into Southcentral as the day progresses. It`s looking
increasingly likely for a band of light to locally moderate rain
to develop out ahead of the trough and sweep east across the Mat-
Su Valleys, western Kenai Peninsula and Anchorage area sometime
during the late morning to afternoon on Tuesday. While still not
a guarantee, this could be the first measurable rainfall in quite
some time across much of the Anchorage area and western Kenai
Peninsula. Stay tuned.

-AS

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Wednesday morning)...

Satellite imagery this morning shows a low pressure system
continuing to spin in the southern Gulf of Alaska with a transient
and weak upper-level ridge over the southwest interior. A
shortwave trough is digging southward across Western Alaska this
morning as the base of this trough makes it over Southwest Alaska
through today. This feature, combined with weak waves rotating
around the Gulf low, will help to kick off another round of
showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. The
best chances for isolated thunderstorms to develop will be along
the eastern slopes of the Kuskokwim, Kilbuck, and Ahklun
Mountains, as well as along the Western Alaska Range. Rain will
continue overnight tonight along the Western Alaska Range and
upper Aleutian Range as the atmosphere stabilizes from this
afternoon and evening`s convection.

Beginning Monday, a secondary trough, stronger than today`s, will
dig southward over Southwest Alaska. An attendant cold front,
also moving south with the trough, will deliver another round of
rain mostly to the southwestern interior. The airmass accompanying
this feature is relatively cold, and temperatures across the
Kuskokwim Valley and along the Western Alaska Range will struggle
to get much higher than 60 degrees Monday and Tuesday. This
relatively cooler air at the surface, in conjunction with cloud
cover, should hinder thunderstorm formation both Monday and
Tuesday. The front weakens by Tuesday morning as light showers
make it to Iliamna by then. Rain tapers off by Tuesday afternoon
across Mainland Southwest with a quiet and dry day expected for
Wednesday.

Farther out west, flow remains out of the north across the Bering
Sea and Aleutian Chain due to the low in the Gulf of Alaska and
high pressure centered just south of Kamchatka. The result of this
pattern continues to be low stratus, fog, and misty conditions
across much of the Bering, including the Bering side of the Alaska
Peninsula, the Pribilof Islands, and along the Aleutian Chain.
Expect the core of the high pressure ridge to begin moving
eastward Monday. The ridge will move over Shemya by Monday
afternoon and across Adak/Atka by Tuesday evening into Wednesday.
The challenge with the movement of this ridge is tracking any fog
development underneath it. There are indications that this ridge
will continue moving east through the day Wednesday and Thursday,
which could open the door for more in the way of unsettled weather
in the form of a North Pacific low to send its front into the
western Bering and Western Aleutians late Wednesday into early
Thursday. This will be something to watch down the road.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through
Saturday)...

An upper level Arctic trough drops south across the Southern
Mainland Monday afternoon and Tuesday, tracking northwest to
southeast across Southwest and then Southcentral Alaska. A broad
low will develop at the base of the trough in the Gulf of Alaska
on Wednesday. There remains some uncertainty as to where the low
will end up, with some models pushing the low towards Yakutat,
while the GFS stays on a western track towards the Prince William
Sound through Friday. There is fair confidence for widespread
light rain showers as the trough tracks across the Mainland, on
Tuesday, with the chance for drier conditions on Wednesday as the
trough exits to the east. Multiple additional shortwaves may
produce periods of light rain showers Thursday and Friday for both
Southwest and Southcentral. Comparatively cooler temperatures
Monday afternoon and Tuesday afternoon with the trough, with the
chance for slightly above normal temperatures Wednesday and
Thursday.

A North Pacific low looks to push south of the Alaska Peninsula
late Friday night into early Saturday morning, with its front
moving into the southern Gulf of Alaska later on Saturday. There
is still a fair amount of model discrepancies regarding exact
track, however, they are is decent agreement on the Friday
night/Saturday morning timeframe. This may promote a wetter
weekend for portions of Southern Alaska.

KM

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period.
Southeast winds blowing out of the Turnagain Arm could briefly let
up this morning, but will return by the afternoon hours. However,
expect winds to stay considerably weaker compared to yesterday.
There will also be a chance for showers spilling over the coastal
mountains to reach into the terminal this morning, but it will
likely not amount to much more than sprinkles.

&&


$$