Nikiski, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

402
FXAK68 PAFC 261347
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
547 AM AKDT Sat Jul 26 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through
3)...

The vertically stacked low that brought widespread rain yesterday
is now in the central Gulf and will continue to push south and
out of the AOR through the weekend. Some light rain will linger
over the Sound this morning, but precipitation should be over by
this afternoon. Some afternoon showers are possible off of the
Talketna Mountains, which will move off to the southwest, but they
should be fairly isolated as ridging continues to build in from
the east and west.

On Sunday temperatures look to be quite warm as the region sits
between two strong upper level ridges, one over the Bering and
the other over the Yukon Territory. High temperatures may reach
the low 80s for interior valleys while most of the region is
expected to be in the mid-to-upper 70s. Convection should be
capped, but a weak wave moving over the Alaska Range will likely
bring some showers to the Alaska Range and Denali Highway.
Conditions on Monday look to be similar, though maybe a touch
cooler, as an upper level trough moving through the Interior
pushes the Yukon ridge slightly to the east. Showers are again
possible along the Alaska Range but otherwise the region will be
hot and dry once again, with little in the way of wind.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Monday)...

As the upper low continues to exit further southeast into the
Gulf of Alaska, a broad ridge over the Central Bering Sea will
serve as the primary weather system for the region. Skies have
mostly cleared out across the Lower Kuskokwim Valley and inland
Bristol Bay on the back side of the low, while the low stratus
that continues to encompass the Bering is beginning to progress
eastwards into the coastal regions of the Kuskokwim Delta and
Bristol Bay. Weak disturbances and a stream of North Pacific
moisture rotating around the periphery of the ridge will bring a
period of rain across the eastern Bering this morning through
tonight. Intermittent rainfall has already begun early this
morning for Nunivak Island, and is expected to increase in
coverage and intensity throughout this morning with periods of
moderate to heavy rain expected through this afternoon. While the
bulk of the precipitation is expected to remain out over the
eastern Bering and Nunivak Island, areas along the Kuskokwim Delta
coast including Toksook Bay and Kipnuk can expect showers today
as the system slightly nudges towards the east. Gusty
northwesterly gap winds through the eastern Aleutians and Alaska
Peninsula begin to relax this evening as the low in the Gulf
advances south.

Persistent low stratus and fog remains in the Bering as the ridge
continues to strengthen and slowly but steadily fills in behind
the low exiting to the south. The expanding eastward influence of
the ridge has allowed for low stratus and fog to spread further
east across the eastern Aleutians and AKPen. This persistent
pattern across nearly the entire Aleutian Chain and AKPen looks to
continue at least through the weekend and likely into early next
week. Weather across the Southwest mainland looks to remain quiet
with partly cloudy to sunny skies through the weekend for the
Lower Kuskokwim Valley and Bristol Bay. The center of the ridge
will slowly shift east and settle over the Pribilof Islands by
Monday, while a weak front approaching the western Aleutians
begins to dissipate as it meets the ridge.

-JH

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through
Friday)...

The long term forecast remains largely on track. The most notable
aspect of the forecast continues to be the storms moving into the
Bering Sea from about Wednesday through Friday, and how they
interact with each other. Given uncertainty with the track of
these storms, it`s difficult to say where impacts will be
expected. However, given the strong upper level dynamics and
moisture transport, generally expect synoptic winds up to gale
force, with moderate to heavy rain for the Bering Sea and Aleutian
Islands as these features move through.

Otherwise, fairly quiet for the remainder of Southern Alaska. An
upper level ridge building across the Southern Mainland will keep
temperatures on the warmer side, and help suppress rainfall over
Southwest Alaska. For Southcentral, the weather will remain more
unsettled as upper level shortwaves emanate from a longwave
trough over Northern Alaska.

-KC

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period as
chances for rainfall decrease through the morning. There is a
small possibility that a lingering shower or two may briefly drop
ceilings to MVFR in the morning hours. There is also a possibility
for low stratus/fog that may drop ceilings to IFR/LIFR during the
same timeframe. Afterwards, solidly VFR skies prevail.

&&


$$